| Summary: | 碩士 === 實踐大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 93 === The GaAs faucet manufacturer, Procomp Informatics Ltd., who ever raised a whirlwind in Taiwan Stock applied the re-organization without any advance announcement, it ignited the mine of fabled technology stock in Taiwan. Electron industry stock has been the maximum volume one in Taiwan during the ten years, which is also the economic lifeline around the years. The export value of it is higher than any other industries; as a result, this study selects Electron Stock for analysis and tries to understand the difference between enterprises either in regular or in trouble as the prediction mode of financial crisis by surveying the related financial data and non-financial data of the listed Electron Enterprises with financial crisis from 2000 to2005 and by pair-analyzing the regular enterprises with their assets and capitals.
This study utilized SAS Multivariate Statistics Software as the analysis tool to select 80% of variables as the Lab set, other 20% as the validation, and constructed models by pairwise analysis. It adopted the financial crisis prediction capability constructed either by advance reduction variables mode or financial crisis prediction capability as the reference for the investors to put money in or for the bank for credit granting.
This study reveals:
1 The hit rate (82.32%)of the mode constructed by reducing variables from factor analysis is lower by original variables (97.98%), which reveals that the prediction capability mode constructed by original variables is more reasonable than reduction variables. The result is obtained first by extracting the common factors (latent factors) and then utilizing the common factors to construct crisis prediction mode.
2. According to the documental data, most researchers extracted and sorted out the reduction variables for convenient analysis while they adopted crisis prediction mode. However, this study reveals that there is an error existed between reduction variables and original variables if the variables have been sorted and extracted. As a result, the researcher must estimate whether the classification and extraction to original variables changed the real result while constructing financial crisis prediction modes.
3.Synthesizing the result, both two different crisis prediction modes conformed to the research purpose, and the mode constructed by original variables possesses the prediction capability of crisis, which is enough to make up for the insufficiency of timeliness criticized by the long-term bonds department of professional evaluation organization, and to estimate whether the listed Electron Companies are capable to solve their financial crisis in a short time and let the investors and the creditors decide the appropriate strategies.
|
|---|
