A Quantitative Risk Assessment for Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Hung-Jen Liao, 廖鴻仁
• Other Authors: Chin-Cheng Chou
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/26610888344156170355

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 獸醫學研究所 === 93 === The study evaluated the probability of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) invasion into cattle breeding circumstances in Taiwan by importing cattle and meat and bone meal (MBM) from infected country. According to pathogen characteristic, cattle farming, slaughter, rendering and feeding circumstances, the BSE risk assessment scenario tree was constructed, information of risk factors were collected and risk values were evaluated. The BSE risk assessment scenario tree included 5 sections and 4 pathways. The final risk value was simulated with 10,000 times of Latin Hypercube simulations by @RISK software. The results revealed the maximum risk of producing at least one case of BSE in Taiwan was 4.84E-4 depending on importing cattle and MBM during 1979 to 2004. Comparing with the decreasing incidence of United Kingdom, the risk value is descending less than one of a million in 2005 and is acceptable now than before. The total risk of importing cattle from United States, Canada and Japan was 5.08E-12 in consideration of infected cattle rendering and producing MBM to feed cattle. For the purpose of evaluating maternal transmission, the simulation results are between 7.79E-14~1.09E-8. In view of the sensitivity analysis, the final risk value was most correlated by the rate of contaminated MBM to feed cattle. Consequently, noticing the BSE epidemic in the world and insisting ruminate feed ban is the most important risk control point.