由儲蓄率與投資率的相關性檢定資本流動性-以台灣與日本為例

• Main Authors: Chun-I Lin, 林君怡
• Other Authors: 陳思寬
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16335764932524484169

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國際企業學研究所 === 93 === Feldstein and Horioka（1980）suggested that the relationship between saving rate and investment rate could be used to evaluate the capital mobility. However, the result of F-H condition is opposite to the traditional concept, which leading countries in the world have high capital mobility. Therefore, many researches on the issue of F-H puzzle are carried out by scholars. This essay is based on F-H condition in Japan and Taiwan during 1973 to 2002 while the restriction was less. We take saving rate and investment rate as variables to run VECM, Unit Root Test, and Cointegration Test to analyze whether the empirical results are correspondence to the goals of the government in Taiwan and Japan. According to our empirical research, the hypothesis, there is no cointegration relationship between saving rates and investment rates in the long run in Taiwan, can not be rejected. Taiwanese government has reduced the limitation on capital movements since 1970s. As a result, the shortage of domestic investment could be improved by foreign savings. In other words, the capital in Taiwan is mobile. We find the coefficient value of saving rate and investment rate of Taiwan is closer to zero than F-H implicated, which also responds to government''s policies to reduce the limitation on capital control. In Japan, on the contrary, saving rate and investment rate are related in the long run. Although Japanese government is open to capital investment, the result of the test is even more puzzled than that of F-H. It implies the inconsistence with their policies. These results could attribute to the fact that industrial countries are usually more willing and capable of making policy to balance the unbalance between economic condition and their targets. As long as there is a gap between the economic status quo and government expectations, Japanese government will interfere in the capital market by policies.