| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 不動產與城鄉環境學系 === 93 === The issue of global environmental change has been the concern of multidiscipline, and the effect of land change is the most direct and obvious. Therefore, the issue of land change has been one of the popular subjects in recent years. The pattern of land change is the result of the complex interactions between the biophysical driving forces and socioeconomic driving forces. In order to manage the results and the trend of land change, the analysis of driving forces has become essential. Therefore, understanding land change and the driving force can support land-use planning policies.
The analysis of land change can be divided into two categories, land-cover change and land-use change. This study applies the method of binary logit model to analyze the driving forces of land-cover change and land-use change of Neihu district. For the change of new buildings area ( growth rate reaches 30％), the significant variables in the model include the potential areas of floods and debris flow, areas located within 750m of a highway and elementary school. For the change of new residential area(growth rate reaches 45％), the variables of restricted area, neighborhood park, areas located within 500m of Neihu Technology Park and elementary school are statistically significant as factors of driving force in Neihu. When the growth rate of new industrial area reached 100％, the variables with significance include the growth quantity of industrial employees and population density, the distance to highway, areas located of Rapid Transit Systems and areas located within 250m of Neihu Technology Park. As for the change of new commercial area( growth rate reaches 60％), the significant variable in the model include the growth rates of commercial employees and population density, the potential areas of floods, areas located within 250m of Rapid Transit Systems, areas located within 1000m of highway. The results of land-cover change and land-use change above provide important information for the policy formulation in land-use planning.
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