The Forecast of Taiwan International Air Cargo Quantity

• Main Authors: Chia-hui Lin, 林佳慧
• Other Authors: Lie-chien Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/38549357505623079398

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運輸倉儲營運所 === 93 === Owing to the past research of Taiwan Air cargo forecast data is outdated; it cannot reflex the present market situation, so this research will focus on the two main airports C.K.S international airport(CKS) and Kaohsiung international airport(KHH) to analyze and forecast their import, export and re-export cargo. This dissertation will use the Fuzzy Regression as the main research method. The research result as follows: (1) The Fuzzy Regression is suitable for explaining the situation when both Independent Variable and Dependent Variable are Crisp Value. The most common types of Fuzzy Regression are Interval Regression and Fuzzy Least-Squares Linear Regression, but for estimating air cargo, the FLSLR is the best method. In a small population situation, the FLSLR overall forecasting power will be better than Byungjoon & Bishu (1998) FMLS model and other traditional regressions. (2) The development trend of air cargo quantity in Taiwan in the coming five years: data shows that the overall international air cargo quantity is arising. From the year of 2005 to 2010, the average growth rate is about 1.15%. By separating total air cargo into export, import and re-export, the export cargo is far more than the import cargo from the year of 2005 to 2010. Taking the year of 2005, total export cargo quantity is 7,598,736 Metric Tons (MT) and import cargo quantity is 530,918 MT. In the re-export side, the future 5 years may reach up to 1,932,374 MT. comparing the two main Taiwan International airports, from the year of 2005 to 2010, total air cargo quantity in CKS is still higher than KHH, about 14.8 times of KHH. (3) Main problem facing in Taiwan future air cargo market: A. Air Cargo Quantity and Supply of Warehousing. B. Keeping on the present situation, the growth of air cargo in the year 2005 to 2010 is classified as Low Growth by the Boeing company classification system. C. Air Cargo Policy: The government policy will surely affect the air market. So, here suggests the government should develop the Asia Air Hub and on the other hand, establish direct traffic between Taiwan and Mainland China will sure help to increase the air cargo quantity in the future.