An empirical study on the relationship among the price indices of the sub-markets in the international marine industry

• Main Authors: Jung-Liang Hung, 洪榮良
• Other Authors: Shan-Huen Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/91805568833552438108

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運輸倉儲營運所 === 93 === In the international marine industry, the newbuilding and secondhand ship markets consist of the main sources of industrial supply. With the increment of transportation demand, the prices in the two markets will be raised correspondingly. On the contrary, if the market is facing an over tonnage situation, the prices in the two markets will be lowered. In turn, it will also affect the price level of freight market. Furthermore, more ships may be scraped. Thus, it is quite obvious that the international marine industry actually consists of four interrelated markets, newbuilding, secondhand, freight and scrapping markets. This research has applied the econometrics methods to investigate the relationship among the four markets. With separating the industry into liner and tramp sectors, several findings have been reached in this study. By following the cointegration test, it reveals that the hypothesis of market efficiency has been supported in the tramp sector, but rejected in the liner sector. In the meantime, based on the error correction model, the result suggests that the adjustment speed responds to disequilibrium among the four markets in the liner sector will be slower than in the tramp sector. And, the results from the analysis of impulse response function show that the responses of price variations among the four interacted markets are quite similar in the two sectors. The pattern of response indicates that the secondhand ship price has the largest reaction to the price variation of fright market. This finding also demonstrates that the reaction of secondhand ship market will be more volatile than the other markets, while the market facing the freight rate to prompt up suddenly. In addition, this study also discovered that the price of scrapped ship has more significant impact on the price of secondhand ship.