The empirical research of multi-generational diffusion model – a case of Japan operator NTT DoCoMo
碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班經營管理組 === 93 === As the 2G mobile systems are continually evolving into 3G technologies, the system vendors and mobile operators put a lot of investment to build the new generation of mobile systems. Before investing new equipment or product, it is very important for inve...
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| Format: | Others |
| Language: | zh-TW |
| Published: |
2005
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| Online Access: | http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64908349698375420260 |
| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班經營管理組 === 93 === As the 2G mobile systems are continually evolving into 3G technologies, the system vendors and mobile operators put a lot of investment to build the new generation of mobile systems. Before investing new equipment or product, it is very important for investors to know what the potential market size is. Since the new product launch fail rate is up to 95% (Deloite and Touche 1998), it is very important for mobile operators to gauge how the market will evolve to minimize risks of investment.
This research studies Japan NTT DoCoMo 3G subscribers’ diffusion growth. The data is taken from Telecommunications Carriers Association subscriber database in 2G PDC and 3G WCDMA subscribers during the period of 02/1996 to 01/2005. Norton and Bass (1986) and Bass and Bass (2004) multi-generational models with different coefficients of innovation and imitation are applied.
The results indicate multi-generation with different innovation and imitation coefficients best fit to NTT DoCoMo 3G subscribers forecast. In addition, the diffusion growth pattern shows that coefficient of innovation is smaller than coefficient of imitation. This suggests that operator should acquire not only the new adaptors but also apply “world of mouth” strategy to develop the market.
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