The Test of Technological Forecasting Models: Comparison between Extended Logistic Model, Fisher-Pry Model, and Gompertz Model

• Main Authors: Chun-Peng Chen, 陳俊朋
• Other Authors: Charles V. Trappey
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/62100147930188949225

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理科學系所 === 93 === The purpose of this thesis is to find a new technological forecasting model based on time-varied capacity and it has a flexible point of inflection. Technological forecasting is a good auxiliary tool to help managers make a decision whether in technological substitution or technological growth. It can also be used to find out the time that will reach the maximum growth rate and to know the possible trend of product’s life cycle. Consequently, a good forecasting can offer useful information to know the possible circumstances in the future. Fisher-Pry and Gompertz model are the most commonly used in this field, and many adapted models also based on their structure. Therefore, this thesis compares these models according to curves and mathematical criteria. The penetration of durable goods is used to test these three models. The result shows that Fisher-Pry model can fit the data well in some long data sets which reached 100% of capacity and Gompertz model fits data well when the right capacity has been set and data set is asymmetric. The extended logistic model shows a better fit and forecast in most data sets.