A Study on the Development of Human-machine Interface for Digital Home Network with Scenario Analysis on Digital Life in the Year 2030

• Main Author: 方仁祥
• Other Authors: 袁建中
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/46987079790598432661

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班科技管理組 === 93 === The human-machine interface has evolved over a long time. People look forward to using a natural and convenient input device by developing keyboard, mouse, touch panel, path ball, speech recognition, gesture recognition, eye tracing, etc. Moreover, we also attempt to find the technology of output device which imitates feeling from person's vision, sensing, touching, and brain wave. We need to know that it is very difficult to satisfy human’s discontented desire without real understanding of body’s a few apparatuses as interface to interact with machine. This research investigates the development of human-machine interface for digital home network based on user’s demand-force and economic-pull by using digital life scenario analysis in 2030. We try to brainstorm to picture the digital life under the six steps of SRI scenario forecasting. By SRI scenario analysis, we explore the key decision factors that influence the needs of future digital life. By means of the Delphi method, we evaluate the uncertainty and impact of external driving forces. We find that three uncertain axes for the future digital life scenario are products/technologies availability, inter-field integrality, and distributed popularization. We further choose most optimistically, most pessimistically, and most possibly scenario which are compose of the three uncertain axes. Finally we propose the trend of human-machine interface for digital home network, and provide the suggestion of opportunities, threats, and strategies under the chosen scenarios.