Estimation and Forecasting of the Demand for Tea in the United States

• Main Authors: Josh Chamberlain, 陳博倫
• Other Authors: Hsin-Hong Kang
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90173788840818564571

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 國際企業研究所碩博士班 === 93 === 　The purpose of this thesis is to test for the following hypothesis: 1) that the following variables a) tea price, b) coffee price, c) population, d) GDP, and e) shipping costs have an influence on tea’s demand in the US; 2) that coffee is a substitute good for tea; 3) that tea is a normal, luxury or inferior good. Further, I will do analyses that forecast the demand for tea in the US for the year 2010. To accomplish these tests this research will use the regression package E-Views to run three log linear regression models. 　Regarding data and sources, quarterly data beginning in January in 1989 and ending in June in 2004 was collected from the following sources; U.S. International Trade Commission, World Marketing Data and Statistics (WMDS), Bureau of Economic Analysis, the USDA/Economic Research Service, and the U.S. Census Bureau. In addition, I conducted telephone interviews with representatives of Taiwan’s leading agricultural organic certification bureaus (MOA TOPA, and ORG). 　The results of the hypothesis tests are: 1) of the variables mentioned above, only US population and GDP are statistically significant in determining the demand for tea in the US; 2) tea and coffee are substitute goods; 3) tea is an inferior good in the US market. 　Results from our forecasting model estimates that 336.23 million pounds of tea will be consumed in the US in 2010; that is roughly 1.08 pounds of tea consumed per capita. 　Further research for tea demand in the US could focus on regional differences regarding tea consumption within the US in order to find the best location for a high quality tea distribution center.