| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 風險管理與保險研究所 === 93 === The defined contribution plan is the trend of retirement pension funds management, but under this plan, the total account values accumulated and the retirement benefits paid each month that labors can get are great related to the investment results of the individual accounts. That's why we said that the investment result of the individual accounts is the most important factor the labors care about.
In this article, we will focus on the measure of investment results. We consider bond and stock as our holding assets, and set the investment rate of return in two methods, including scenario analysis and stochastic model. In the scenario analysis method, we set fourteen scenarios to reflect the changes of the investment returns of stocks. In the stochastic model method, we take use of Wilkie investment model to set the investment return rate of stocks and bonds and simulate enormous data to find the average investment rate of return.
In each method, we will consider 101 different initial ratio of stock value and three different investment strategies: Buy & Hold(BH)、Constant Mixture(CM) and Time-invariant Portfolio Protection(TIPP).
After setting the investment rate of return and investment strategies, we can find 303 different investment results under three investment strategies and 101 initial ratios of stock values. In each result, we can get the accumulated amounts, the income substitute rate and the average rate of return, and use the average rate of return as y-axis, standard deviation as x-axis to find the efficient frontier. That is, we can find the optimal investment strategies and initial ratio of stock value under the risk we can tolerant. We will also use Sharpe Ratio、Reward-to-VaR ratio and Reward-to-CTE ratio to measure the investment results, and find the optimal investment strategies and initial ratio of stock value basic on the three ratios.
In practice, the transaction cost is an important factor that will affect the investment results, so we also find the investment results under different situations which had considered the transaction cost.
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