| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 金融研究所 === 93 === In 2004, Taiwan’s future market suffered both serious liquidity risk and systematic risk. At March 22nd in 2004, the Taiwan Future Index fall down and touched the maximum limit－7% suddenly. The volume of future market was extremely low. This paper called this event as “322 event.”
This paper has two parts. First the paper will illustrate the 322 event. What caused the 322 event? And how the 322 event happened? This paper will seek these answers. We found that the main reasons to cause the liquidity risk and systematic risk are too many investors bought futures. This was because they believed after the 2004 President election, the Taiwan’s stock market would rise to celebrate. At March 19th, the President Chen Shui-Bian encountered a shot murder. At March 20th, some serious dispute took place and made our society was full of insecurity. Investors began concern the stock market would be uncertain. They didn’t buy any futures like before, but in contrast they started to sell it.
The another aspect in this paper is to construct a model. In order to follow up the liberalization and globalization, the government authority plans to open more derivatives for the futures corporations to invest. But how do the government authorities monitor these futures corporations becomes an important lesson. This paper will also seek the answers through constructing a model using VaR model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio. Then this paper uses Taiwan Stock Option as an example examining whether the model is useful. The short-term investment discount ratio of the stock option by model is 40.89%. This outcome is much closed to 40%, the regulated discount ratio.
Finally, this paper provides several advices in order to diminish the liquidity risk and systematic risk when futures market will suffer what similar to 322 event in the future. And this paper gives some information to supervisors about how to construct a model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio so that the ratio is ensured following a logical principle.
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