| Summary: | 碩士 === 高雄醫學大學 === 醫藥暨應用化學系碩士班 === 93 === Rabies is a kind of lethal zoonosis. There is no rabies case occurred in Taiwan area from 1958. Taiwan is one of few areas as rabies-free zone in the world. In order to prevent rabies invasion, this research is trying to integrate the theories of meta-population and epidemiology, to construct the dynamic models for various status of the dog populations, and to simulate the development of vaccination strategy for the disease control.
Firstly, the classic meta-population model was applied to simulate the dynamics of the healthy population as a start. Secondly, the meta-population model was integrated with the epidemiology to construct a modified model system to analyze the infected population dynamics. The result suggests that as the population infected rabies, the higher movement rate and the transmission rate would make the susceptible population extinction and the infected population taken over the whole patches. Thirdly, for understanding the control of infected population, this research incorporates the control strategy of vaccination to the meta-population model system. The result implies that although the low movement rate make rabies could not proliferate in the population, the occupied ratio of the meta-population could not raise, either. As the movement rate increase, the occupied ratio of the meta-population could raise but only the infected and immune sub-populations co-existed. These two sub-populations have shown a competitive function relationship.
Although reducing movement rate might effectively keep the disease from outbreak, it might not raise the occupied ratios of patches by the meta-population. The reduction of infected rate and movement rate can control disease expanding, but the effects are rather limited. Increasing vaccination rate can boost the immune population; therefore, it can effectively control the rabid proliferation even in high movement rate as the disease invading.
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