Estimation of Learning Effectiveness by Fuzzy Neural Network Models

• Main Authors: Chia-Sheng Lin, 林家聖
• Other Authors: Jia-Sheng Heh
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/33256935517580882832

碩士 === 中原大學 === 資訊工程研究所 === 93 === Research in data mining domain have a long period, many researcher works hard for digging more and useful information, which are some kind of relationship or rules. But with these reslationship and rules, they tell people what happened in and if there are some behavior patterns in the past. Besides, these patterns not only being patterns but also tell people where the future is. These patterns bring the age of research in estimation, but most of these researches pay too much attention on business activities, such as stock trend, demand forcasting etc. Some researchs in non-business activities are exist surely, for example the predition of climate or cache which applied to internet. But only few researches focused on education. In this thesis, we have designed 3 kinds of data estimating model, with the data clustering theory in data mining domain, by using the self-organizing map (SOM) of neural network. These models are state-transition matrix, state-transition probabilitic model and continuous state-transistion model, which use in serial data for finding internal pattern transition. By using of these these models, it gets some possible value in the future, and these values will be extracted for the inner information by fuzzy theory. With the information, we can find the probabilities of some default values, for a formal report of estimation. This theis brings up not only a estimation method, but also an full-loop data mining process. The process integrates with the estimation method which has mentioned above, it applies to the the estimation of the l nmg effectiveness. Full-loop data mining process is like most KDD processes, from original data to model, but the process also uses these models for analyzing the grades to students for a feedback. Experiments in the thesis predict the values of fall of students by using 1 to 3 models, to confirm if the estimation more accurate by the cooperation of more models. Beside, for confirming the generality, we also used the data of student grades in different college.