An Inquiry to the Prediction of Legislature Election Outcome：A prospective of Genetic algorithm

• Main Authors: Lu,Kun-Hwa, 呂昆樺
• Other Authors: 黃仲銘
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86457211112398215782

碩士 === 長榮大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 93 === Ever since the human race started the activity of election, many ways of electioneering had been found in endlessly large numbers, and many home and oversea scholars have been continuously working on various researches on this particular topic. Many of the home scholars had looked into voters’ behaviors in polling, and factors of candidate choices. As times changes, electorates have different expectations and demands toward candidates therefore it is necessary to study the preferences of general electorate. Studies in voters’ behaviors in polling have been brought to attention by the home academic circle during these recent years, followed by the development of election in Taiwan, the electorates tend to pay much attention to the election results and the forecasts. This then brought us to the question of: what is the connection between the voting orientations of electorates, the electoral policies of political parties, and election results and forecasts? Hence this study is in accordance with the election result and the forecast of the 2004 Taiwan Legislature Election and to proceed to the next step, a discussion in supports of political parties and electorate’s voting autonomy would be taken place. During 2004 Taiwan Legislature Election, the tactic of ‘vote allocation’ had become a main factor of predominating the election. The academic circle had been brought about and had placed importance on this phenomenon. There are many studies relative to tactical voting, mostly standing on the statistic of the public opinion surveys, however since it is stressed that all studies shall be based on scientific proofs, an actual data is also quoted this study in order to examine and prove the degree of how the electorate was effected by the tactic of ‘vote allocation’, moreover to analyze and discuss whether this tactic is successful or not. Genetic algorithm is adopted in this study to carry out the analysis of election forecast. Concrete evidence shows that under the policies of joint-campaigns vote allocation, by applying genetic algorithm, there was a relatively high accuracy in the election forecast. Consequently, the anticipation of this study is to take public opinion surveys as the principle, and through genetic algorithm to probe into the causal relationship between election result and public opinion surveys.