The Study on the Financial Alert Model by Using Logistic Regression -The Case of Computer and Peripheral Manufacturing Industry in Taiwan

• Main Authors: SHANYU LI, 李善玉
• Other Authors: 賴鈺城
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2005
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/75668996934722813609

碩士 === 長榮大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 93 === 　In this paper, the variable of financial ratios and corporate governance factors are used to develop the financial alert model. Logistic regression is employed here to construct financial alert model for the listed companies and OTC in Taiwan stock market. The empirical results are stated as follows: 1.The forecasting ability of financial alert model can be strengthened by adding corporate governance factors into this model. 2.The explanatory variables in the financial alert model are accounts receivable turnover rate , total assets turnover rate, total assets growth ,net worth growth ,net worth turnover rate ,debt rate ,and the loan to net worth ratio. All the variables are significant. Above all, the most significant variable is accounts receivable turnover rate .For the corporate governance, both the percentages of shares of board of directors and supervisors are significant. 3.When the businesses have a sign of financial crisis, accounts receivable turnover rate and the percentages of shares of board of directors are decreasing. Therefore, to observe the change of these two variables can forecast the financial crisis.