A Study on the Evaluation Factors of Cash Card Default Risk-An Example if the T Bank in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Liao Yuan-Tang, 廖元堂
• Other Authors: Liu Ching-Chuan
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50041420755212130269

碩士 === 臺中健康暨管理學院 === 經營管理研究所 === 92 === ABSTRACT The main aim of this Research is to explore each factor concerning credit evaluations for the credit line of applicants’ in approved letters as well as its relation with reneging behind time made by the person who holds the card, using cross analysis and logistic regression analysis. According to the research, it can be found that variables such as the amount of credit cards a person has, his year incomes, balance of loan, possess apparent differences for normal cards and bad cards. Among them, a person holding cards who has higher year incomes and loan balances has lower risks of reneging. The one with more amounts of credit cards has higher possibility of reneging. This means that the more credit cards a person has, the higher possibility of cash card’s reneging he has due to easily expanding his credit. The fact is worth noticing for the bank that the amount of credit cards weren’t listed in the approved letter of credit line when this bank made its evaluation factors. In the research, we can learn that the approved loan lines of 73.2％ of bad cards are the range from 10,000 to 150,000, among which the one is with a lower lever of personal credit evaluation but the rate of reneging is higher than other levels. We suggest that the bank should be particularly cautious when approving loan line for persons with the grade under 70 to ensure good early warning of risks. A person holding cards with higher amount of guarantee and fiduciary loan and with lower evaluation has a lower reneging risk. The more guarantee loan he has, the more valuable his real estate is. But in this case, this kind of applicant has lower evaluation grade. Therefore, the more his loan balance is, the less the loan line can be applied by his cash card. The applicant won’t make harm on the credit of other guarantee loans for reneging small line of cash cards. In reverse, by separately computing the grade of guarantee loan and credit loan balance and raising the grade of loan balance with guarantee, the applicant’s money ability can be truly shown. To make an external test of the forecast efficiency of logistic regression by taking random sampling of the account amount of approved loan line, its result is both the whole and external tests of the sample have extraordinarily close forecast efficiency.