| Summary: | 碩士 === 東吳大學 === 國際貿易學系 === 92 === Effective exchange index is used to calculate the average weighted exchange rate between groups of countries. The purpose of effective exchange rate is to measure the variations of currency to these main international trade countries and integrated influences. If we consider the variation relationships between each and the basis period, it is named nominal effective exchange rate. Also, if we again consider the goods price variations in the exchange index, it is named real effective exchange rate.
The main research of the thesis is to afresh the bases, weights, and members of currency in the monetary basket. We recalculate the effective exchange rate index then analyze and compare it to macroeconomic factors such as exportation amounts, economic achievements, and stock index by Granger statistic method test. The new effective exchange rate index that we calculate starts on 1981 and adjusts the bases each five years. The advantage of this effective exchange index is to look after both sides on moving and fixed weights and adjust the members of currency in an appropriate degree.
After the research and statistic test results, we find out that New Taiwan Dollars effective exchange rate index owns outstanding relationships between exportation amount and stock index. First, the relationship between NTD effective exchange rate index and exportation amount is negative. It means that when the effective exchange rate arises (decreases), then the exportation amount decreases (arises). The NTD effective exchange rate index is approximate eighty in these years, we can clearly understand the monetary policy of our central bank is to let NTD exchange rate maintain in a lower level in order to keep Taiwan’s exportation better.
Second, the relationship between NTD effective exchange rate index and stock index is positive. It means that when the effective exchange rate index arises (decreases), then the stock index arises (decreases). It would cause NTD exchange rate to appreciate (depreciate). When the stock index keeps arising, it reflects that a great deal of foreign capitals remit inward then causes the appreciation of NTD exchange rate. So the NTD effective exchange rate index arises.
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