A study of using Time Series Analysis as the method on forecasting the trade value between Taiwan and Mainland China

• Main Authors: Chen, Chin-Hua, 陳錦花
• Other Authors: 洪大為
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/69782025098309122747

碩士 === 實踐大學 === 貿易經營研究所 === 92 === Abstract International Trade Statistics showed, the growth rate of export trade value and import trade value are both 16% in the World. They were 35% and 40% respectively in Mainland China. In addition, the rank of export trade went up from tenth in 1997 to fourth in 2003; and the rank of import trade went up from twelfth to the third (World Trade Organization 2004). It is very clear that the economic in China is booming. The trend of the trade is becoming the top topic in the future since Taiwan’s trade is depended on China market day by day and the Trade Dependence is still increasing. This research tries to adopt the ARIMA mode to predict and analyze the trade value between Taiwan and China. The result may give some suggestion to the government and the companies who want to define the strategy for China. The study period started from Jan.1993 to Dec.2003 and the database was from Mainland Affairs Council. There are totally 132 trade records. The sample space applied the export trade value and import trade value between Taiwan and Mainland China. The results of this study were, 1.On the part of export, it will continue grow continue and the trade value was forecasted to reach US$5.491 billion in the end of 2004. On the other hand, the import trade will be also raised as well and it was forecasted to reach US$1.374 billion at the same time. The import trade value appears seasonal effect on February. That means it would be descend first then raise. 2.The study also found that the export trade value was not descended as normal expect since the less working days in Feb. in Lunar New Year. The result showed that the import trade value was descended obviously in Feb. each year. 3.The comparison of this prediction in export and import, the MAPE of export value is 0.123181 and it is 0.112172 in the import value. It looks that the prediction effect of import value is better than export value. 4.Both the export and import trade value showed the growth trend from the prediction, that means the Trade Dependence between Taiwan and China will be more higher than before. The government should define the relative policy in advance in order to support the economic development and the companies should also define their strategy to win the business from it. Key words：Time Series, Across trade, Trade Dependence, ARIMA