PRC''s Position on U.S.A''s Strategic Defense Plans

• Main Authors: Hsiao-Yin Wu, 吳嘯吟
• Other Authors: Shih-Min Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34284562466207142355

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 92 === The context of this thesis, composes of over 150 thousand words, consists of five chapters, and mainly discusses and analyzes the PRC’s position on the development of U.S. strategic missile defenses by document analysis and historical approach. This thesis intends to clarify the reasons that the PRC’s opposition to NMD and suggestion on consolidating the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty regime. The thesis considers the ABM Treaty, signed in 1972 by two superpowers, brought indirect benefits to the PRC for the strategic logics of mutual assured destruction and mutual assured vulnerability to make no defense to two superpower’s homeland. It might strength the deterrent of PRC’s nuclear force and affect PRC to adopt t the nuclear weapon development approach focused on quality rather than quantity indirectly. After the early 1980’s, the PRC’s nuclear force gradually gained the ability to threat on U.S. territory and might also obtained the credible second strike capability. This also created the strategic relations framework between PRC and U.S.A. As early as 1983, President Ronald Reagan initiated the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) to make the nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete; the PRC opposed SDI on the grounds that it would accelerate the arms race between USSR and U.S.A. The PRC feared SDI deployment would fuel strategic arm race, undermining China’s nuclear deterrent by causing China to fall even father behind the two superpowers. As a result, the PRC openly opposed any plan leading to a space arms race. After the mid of 1990’s, the United States developed National Missile Defense system to defend the territory of the United Stated against limited ballistic missile attack whether accidental, unauthorized or deliberate. Militarily, the PRC believed that NMD is structured, sized and focused to neglect China’s nuclear forces. Politically, the PRC believed that NMD deployment amounts to a concrete manifestation of US determination to consolidate its position as a global hegemony and a clear manifestation of hostility toward China. The PRC opposed any revisions to the ABM Treaty and consider the Treaty plays a very important role in maintaining the global strategic balance and stability, promoting nuclear disarmament and enhancing international security. The PRC also called for renewed efforts by each of the states parties to preserve and strengthen the ABM Treaty through full and strict compliance. The U.S. withdrawal of the ABM Treaty in 2002 had cause the PRC to worry whether U.S will once again attain the ability of first strike towards PRC. U.S NMD will severely undermine the credibility of China’s limited strategic deterrence of approximately twenty intercontinental ballistic missiles and thus enable U.S to use nuclear blackmail against China in crisis. Although Pekin stated it will not participate in an arms race with anybody, Pekin also reiterated it won’t allow its legitimate security interests to be compromised by any one. U.S missile defense plans and the associated withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty could substantially influence China’s ongoing plans to modernize and expand its nuclear forces. In order to counter NMD, Pekin might build more missile warheads to overwhelm the defense, lower the observability of the warheads by applying counter measures or raise the survivability of its nuclear arsenal. On the dual uncertainty of the developments U.S NMD and PRC’s nuclear modernization, it will not only cause regional arms race in East Asia but also influence the effective of U.S security commitment to Taiwan.