Research OF National Health Insurance Medical

• Main Authors: Yu, Chieh-Chao, 余健釗
• Other Authors: Liu, Hui-Mei
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2004
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/02025013177584693950

碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 統計學系 === 92 === According to the statistics of Health Bureau, the medical benefits in Taiwan grow year by year. Total medical benefits attain to 5,488 billion NT dollars, and the average medical expenditures a year each person attain to 24,567 NT dollars in 1989. Now, the proportion of medical expenditures to GDP in Taiwan is 5.8%, which is relatively low to the proportions of developed countries. For example, the proportion in U.S. is about 14%, in Germany is about 10.6%, in French is about 7.4%, and in Japan is about 7.4%. From the issuance of the Public Medical Insurance in 1995, the financial situation of it is always the focus of all parties. In 1998, the medical benefits were over the premium incomes, and financial shortage amounted to 50 billions. Since then, the financial shortage situation continued to 2000. This paper examines the monthly data from 1996 to 2001, total 6 years, and selects proper explanation variables to construct a medical expenditure stochastic model. This paper employs the methodology of univariate time series model and transfer function model to simulate and predict future growth trend of medical expenditures, by the way, to set a financial-equitable premium rate. The research results of this paper show that average medical expenditure per person is affected by the factor of seasonality, explanation variables, the previous period disturbance term, and the medical price level index of pervious three periods