| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 92 === Innovation means the application of the new technology or new knowledge high technical industries used to offer new service or new products to customers. Product Development and Management Association ( PDMA ) indicated that over 50% of sales were created by new products which innovated by high technical industries. However, making researches into new products may cause highly cost to firms, hence how to predict the sales exactly must be the serious issue to high technical industries.
The most famous diffusion model made to predict the sales revenue was made by Bass (1969), who used mathematical model to predict the sales of new products. Other researches were based on Bass (1969). Mahajan, Muller and Bass (1990) indicated nine unreasonable assumptions of Bass (1969), so we will take Mahajan, Muller and Bass (1990) to modify the Bass Model and use the modified model to analyze the digital camera market in Taiwan.
According to the study, we can find that the modified model which based on Bass (1969) got better performance than Bass Model and Robinson and Lakhani (1975) Model in the prediction of the sales and the analysis of the digital camera marketing in Taiwan. So the diffusion model which considered the marketing mix variables, such like price, advertisement and the multi-adoption behavior such as replacement purchased by consumers may be a good modified diffusion model to predict the sales of new products.
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