| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 運輸倉儲營運所 === 92 === Due to export container throughputs had being substitute for transferred container throughputs to become the main benefits of Kaohsiung port recently. The transferred container throughputs have gone over 50% of all the container throughputs Kaohsiung port has handled since 2002. Studies before pointed out three major factors that influence transferred container throughputs; and these three factors are import, export container throughputs and stevedoring operation performance of Kaohsiung port. We not only want to know how these three factors affect transferred container throughputs, but also get deeper understanding of the dynamic impact of these four factors. Therefore, we aim at import, export, transferred container throughputs and stevedoring operation performance by using the method of econometric time series, we want to have research in the dynamic impact of these four factors. We use VAR model, Granger causality test, variance decomposition, and impulse response function that included this time series method.
The results show import and transferred container throughputs are treated as endogenous variables; export container throughputs is viewed as exogenous variable, which significantly influence transferred and import container throughputs. Stevedoring operation performance is also treated as exogenous variable. Then we have the variance decomposition test, this result is in accordance with the Granger causality test.
We then use impulse response function to find out when shock to transferred and import container throughputs, how will future transferred and import container throughputs react. Figures show that in the long run, the impact converges against time. Shock to the variable its own has the most significant impact of the future value. Transferred response to import shock has more critical impact than import response to transferred shock. We also test impacts on endogenous variables due to the changing of exogenous variables; the outcome shows export container throughputs do more critical impacts than stevedoring operation performance does on import and transferred container throughputs. All these results tell us that the economy of a country and the trade volume have crucial influence on import and transferred container throughputs, and stevedoring operation performance has positive but steady, long impact.
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