| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 科技管理研究所 === 92 === With the emerging digital revolution of LCD TV, PDP TV and Rear Projection TV, that brings a broad range advantages to light weighted, low-frequency electromagnetic emissions, performance and price, it seemed that the emerging-technology-based television products can gradually replace CRT TV. Apart from that, recent advances in HD compatibility have markedly increased the response time of these displays; resulting in even smoother on-screen presentations which in consequences, the demand of larger size with better display results will thus increase. The purpose of this research is to analyze the development of the global market of these three kinds of emerging-technology-based television products. Under the assumption of those emerging-technology-based television products will gradually replace CRT TV in television markets, literature review is based on the sell quantity of televisions around the global from year 1999 to 2003 and opinions from the experts in the relevant domain are collected in this research. In order to analyze the global trend and demand in these emerging TV displays, growth curves of technology forecasting methods are hence used. The results represent varied developing trends of the market share in the optimum, worst, and most likely scenario respectively, and provide these three kinds of emerging-technology-based television products will reach their upper limits in the market share around year 2015 or 2016. At that time, LCD TV will have the largest demand in the emerging-technology-based television, PDP TV is the next and Rear Projection TV is the third. CRT TV, however, will still occupy half of the global television market share.
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