| Summary: | 博士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學研究所 === 92 === There is broad agreement that greenhouse warming will have several major impacts on water resources. Warmer temperatures will accelerate the hydrological cycle, changing precipitation, the magnitude and timing of runoff and the intensity and frequency of both floods and droughts. This is likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts shall follow on from these effects and bring about changes in water demand and supply.
Demand management is critical for achieving more efficient water use and in responding to any change however, in future supplies and demands. Demand management measures are more than adequate to deal with plausible climate-induced changes in water supplies and demands over the next several decades. Parry and Carter（1986）shows the mean of a probability distribution of streamflows and the variability ought to be very useful to the water planner. This research tried to replace these two traditional climate factors with climatic variability indicators.
Climate change and water management scenario models developed in this thesis are used to estimate the influence of climate change on the economic welfare of water demands and supplies, and will attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change scenarios on water resources for southern Taiwan. Conclusions include both the precipitation variability as well as the temperature variability indicators as two better indicators of water demands and supply than the average precipitation and temperature: which have often been used as the principal climatic factors.
The several options for water management adaptation present in this thesis are as follows:
-, Establish a comprehensive compensating system for agricultural water transference.
-, Strengthen infrastructure design in adapting to climate change.
-, Identify ways to sustainably manage supplies, including the integration of ground and surface water management.
-, Evaluating water demand adapting to climate change.
-, Rational pricing decisions.
-, The establishment of emergency water banks.
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