| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學研究所 === 92 === Taiwan and Mainland China have some subtle relationships. The trades and investments between Taiwan and China have being increasing significantly since 1980s. However, China never gives up using forces to attack Taiwan. So people in Taiwan live on a knife-edge between peace and war. The militarily strength is proportional to the Economic strength. China’s economy is about five times of Taiwan’s, and the gap is increasing. Purely relying on the tradition weapons is not sufficient to protect Taiwan. Biological weapons are powerful and hard to be uncovered. Taiwan has the necessary biological, medical, and scientific technologies to develop and deploy biological weapons. Thus this thesis applies game theories to investigate the possibility of using biological weapons to deter China and to maintain the peace. The games used are a basic sequential game, a sequential game with asymmetric information, and Peter Stauvermann’s repeated sequential game conflict model. Taiwan’s GDP and China’s GDP are adopted to evaluate the possibilities of war and peace. Attritions are incorporated into the model to make the model more realistic. Both tradition wars and biological wars are simulated. We found that in many situations, the tremendous loss of the biological war can deter the ambition of the relatively strong party, China, to start a war. Using biological weapons to maintain peace is feasible. This results can help Taiwan on the negations with China even Taiwan does not develop biological weapons, as long as Taiwan is able to develop such weapons secretly and in no time.
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