| Summary: | 碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 休閒事業管理系碩士班 === 92 === The government promote domestic tourism actively in recent years. Among the 2008-challenge the future plan, the domestic tourism development plan hope by submitting tourist double plan, package travel and new developing scenic area to Increase domestic tourists from 74 million to 1.5 hundred million.
This study utilize Box-Jenkins’s ARIMA model and Ordinary Least Square Model to establish practical forecasting model for four area, north, central, south and east. Then assembly by forecasting combination method to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.
The result shows that forecasting combination can improve the accuracy because it combine two models’ merit. In this study, unfortunately, due to the OLS shortcoming, it becomes barely outcomes. The North, Central and South area still remain more accuracy in ARIMA model forecasting value, only East area acquire more accuracy by the forecasting combination B.
The result also shows the Tourists of National Scenic Area increase but slowly. The total tourist of National Scenic Area will reach 20 million in 2005 which is only 10% progress by 2003.
|
|---|
