| Summary: | 碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 企業管理系碩士班 === 92 === As our government allows the establishment of new banks, every bank is eager to compete in the issue of credit markets, leading to rapid growth of the market. The banking and information industries as well as the businesspeople all respond with a prudent, optimistic, and positive attitude, attempting to gain the greatest benefit of it. The vast market and the promotion of the government institutions, the popularity of credit cards and the deep impact on the life of the common people, and expansion the dealing functions have tremendously changed the social transaction. We may see the trend from the following indications; the number of credits cards, the total sum charged in credit cards, worldwide cash advance, and revolving credit, according to the statistics issued by the Bureau of Monetary Affairs. The study aims to investigate the market of credit cards through the four indicators.
The study has three aims: first, to understand the trend of the credit market in Taiwan from historical data; second, to establish the prediction model of the number of credits cards, the total sum charged in credit cards, worldwide cash advance, and revolving credit; third, to make predictions for the market and to analyze the trend in the future according to the four indicators. Among the prediction approaches, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrate Moving Average) model has been extensively applied in time series, and has proved valid. A scholar has once adopted seasonal ARIMA model to predict the monthly sum charged in credit cards within two years, and has got fruitful outcome. The study also uses seasonal ARIMA model as the main research approach.
According to the research analysis, seasonal ARIMA model is suitable for the prediction in the study. The MAPE in the four prediction models is below 10%. The MAPE digits in order are as follows: numbers of credit cards in circulation, revolving credit, worldwide cash advance, and total sum charged in credit cards. We can predict, after a year (in August, 2004): the number of credit cards is 42320 thousand cards, growing by 19.17%; the total sum charged in credit cards amounts to 9423.6 million dollars, growing approximately by 10%; worldwide cash advance reaches 20.4 billion dollars, growing by 24.7%; the amount of revolving credit is 417.7 billion dollars, growing by 15.9%. According to the product life-cycle theory, the number of credit cards is still in growth, the sum charged in credit cards gets to maturity, worldwide cash advance is just in growth, and the amount of revolving credit is also getting from growth to maturity. Those prediction figures can serve as reference for marketing strategies in different industries, and offer suggestions to the coming researchers and the authorities concerned.
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