| Summary: | 碩士 === 東海大學 === 工業工程學系 === 91 === When it comes to the industry in the past, while the company forecasted the sales volume of its products, most of them only considered the related factors inside the company that affect the sales volume, ignored the other factors about the related cooperated firms outside however. Thus it caused an imprecise forecast in return. If a industry wants to take a advantageous position in the competed environment which is frequently-changed and arrive the exactest goal in the field of forecasting its sales volume, it must be in the angle of the whole demand-supply system, and share the information of related factors which are interrelated what has to be thought over on the sales volume by the use of the concept of information sharing. Only in this way can an industry forecast the sales volume in the market more precisely.
The ways this research evolves are divided into two phases. For one thing, it adds on the concept of information sharing to analyze the industry . Besides, it use Product Life Cycle to be the latitude, analyzing there are how many kinds of strategies and characteristics when the transform and change of the certain product in various periods, and make a through inquiry the factor that the two aspects, market dimensions and producing dimensions, which influence the sales volume with each other from among. The variable which prompts it to build collaborative forecasting model considers the factors on both market and producing sides. In addition, it is reasonable and suitable to endow with different effect factors and producing strategies, resulting in the whole sales forecasting will be more suitable to the real condition.
The second phase is, when the correctness of CF which the industry established is far from the error allowed（unusual events happen）,this research makes use of the disposing system of Case-based Reasoning, and goes with the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process; goes through the way of inquiring experts to build up a paired relative matrix. Finally, making use of the pattern of similar mathematical calculations performance and cases think tank, disguising the extraordinary events happened, and providing the most suitable resolution in the shortest time to let the decision-maker deals with them most timely, proceeding to the next step, it will help the industry promote its advantageous position in competition in the intense-competed and frequently-changed market, thus create the real win-win goals and prospects for the cooperated industries.
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