| Summary: | 碩士 === 臺中健康暨管理學院 === 資訊管理研究所 === 91 === In the field of supply chain management, there is a phenomenon worth paying attention to, which is called the bullwhip effect. Due to distorted information, the variance of upstream inventory demand is greater than the variance of real consumer demand. Then, it causes the whole total cost of supply chain to promote as the cost is increased.
In this research we quantify this effect by three-level supply chains consisted of a single consumer, a single retailer, and a single manufacturer. In order to conform the real situation in the supply chain, this study considers uncertain factors and takes advantage of a stochastic process to observe each time period of demand, and quantify the bullwhip effect. We also can acquire the better estimation of lower bound when the variance of order is related to the variance of demand.
We test our model by analyzing on cosmetics and medicine drugstore supply chain. The result shows that we can acquire the efficient lower bound estimation in bullwhip effect and then manage supply chain effectively when our model is bigger in n (period) and P (time period) is smaller in proportion to n. In the future, the study anticipates applying in the area of ordering tickets on-line (ex: the system of the ERA tickets), ISP (ex: network throughput), and stock market of finance (ex: the price fluctuation of stock). We hope that we can realize the industry of real situation in the supply chains by this research, and then manage the bullwhip effect effectively.
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