| Summary: | 碩士 === 樹德科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 91 === Abstract
Taiwan is heavily involved in international trade. Exchange rate is a key influence on the valuation of foreign assets. Exchange rate fluctuations can influence the returns achieved by trading firms, and thus influence their production-marketing decisions and operation structure. Following World Trade Organization entry, Taiwan faces much more intensified international competition. Notably, innovations in the international financial hierarchy also impact exchange rate stability and business profitability. Consequently, managing exchange rate fluctuations and trends is important for foreign exchange managers. Owing to exchange rate instability, this investigation used the theoretical structure of the Portfolio Balance Approach to apply the Grey Forecasting GM (1,1) and Grey Markov Forecasting models to develop new exchange rate forecasting models. Taiwanese exchange rate data was then selected to demonstrate the application of the new exchange forecasting models. The main analytical result is that the new exchange rate forecasting models can be used to make accurate and efficient exchange rate forecasts than the Markov Forecasting model and Grey forecasting Model that based on exchange rate numerical values. The findings presented here can provide a valuable reference for participants in foreign exchange markets when predicting exchange rate movements.
|
|---|
