Estimation of Cancer Medical Lost for Taiwan National Health Insurance

• Main Author: 林家玉
• Other Authors: 黃泓智
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36252636059440848353

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 商用數學系 === 91 === This study deals with the estimation of the medical cost for cancers. A discrete Markov model with three states of health, cancer and death is constructed. We make use of the raw data (7GB) of Taiwan National Health Insurance database from 1996 to 2000 to investigate the frequency and severity of cancers. With this information, we can obtain the transition rates among three different states in the model. We then apply the property of the Markov model to estimate medical expenditures of cancers for the individual. We also make estimation for the total numbers of people who suffer cancers and the total amount of medical cost of cancers for future years from year 2002 to 2052. Furthermore, the n-years break-even premiums for the medical expenditures of cancer are estimated. The information obtained in this research is very valuable for the government to evaluate whether the current premium rate for the National Health Insurance is sufficient or not.