| Summary: | 碩士 === 中國文化大學 === 觀光事業研究所 === 91 === The purpose of this study is to establish a set of tourism business indicators according to the changes status of visitor arrivals. Time series data used is from January 1999 through December 2002. The influence variables on visitor arrivals include macro-economic variables like the CPI, GDP and exchange rates, the tourism supply variables like the number rooms of international tourist hotel, number of available seats, and the transaction variables like the occupancy rate and load factor of international tourist hotels. The total seven indicators are used as the predictors to forecast the market of the visitor arrivals.
Tourism business indicators include leading type and coincident type indicators. The results reveal that leading indicators include CPI, GDP, exchange rates, the available seats number and load factor of airlines . The coincident indicators include the room’s number and occupancy rate of international tourist hotel. The leading diffusion index leads visitor arrivals about a month to 3 months, that means the current period t and period t-1 of leading index shown the same trend of going up, the visitors of arrival will going up with the same drift.
|
|---|
