工程競標得標機率之實證與經濟利潤競標模型之探討

• Main Authors: Ying, Chia-Te, 應迦得
• Other Authors: Ho, S. Ping
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/96567683332690746033

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 土木工程學研究所 === 91 === Bidding is one of the most important tasks for contractors, because the result of contract bidding will affect contractors’ profit for current year and years to come. Bidding theory has been a major research subject in construction management. Although the academia has developed many models on competitive bidding, a consensus conclusion is still far from being reached. Two major reasons are that: (1) These bidding models use different assumptions for analyzing the constructers’ probability of winning the bid and one can hardly verify the validity of the assumptions and consequent results, and (2) There are few construction companies that use such models in their practice. This study will use Historic Simulation, Bidding Experiment, and Monte-Carlo Simulation to verify and compare three most important bidding models in literature, and to examine from several perspectives that, under what condition, which model is the most correct. This study will also utilize the economics concept of economic profit and opportunity cost to model the contractors’ decision making. Finally, the economic profit model developed will help us recognize the essence of bidding decision making and it will assist contractors in making better bidding decisions.