| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 財政學系 === 91 === The purpose of this study is to investigate whether outward investment brings about industrial hollowing-out. According to Chen and Su (1988), when an industry’s output share to GDP and its multifactor productivity both appear decreasing trend, the hollowing-out may have occurred. As statistic data shows, the outward investment of Taiwan''s manufacturing has been rapidly increasing since mid-1980s. Meanwhile, the manufacturing’s share of GDP has been declining. Therefore, the productivity performance of the manufacturing becomes an important indicator examining the industrial hollowing-out. This thesis focuses on the analysis of the productivity performance of Taiwan''s manufacturing in 1980s and 1990s. Basically, the productivity was growing up during the past two decades even with large outward investment. Nevertheless, it is worthy to notice that the productivity was going down slightly at the end of 1990s.
In this thesis, we analyze the productivity performance from two different aspects. On one hand, we use regression analysis to estimate the effects of the total outward investment (or outward investment to China), total exports (or exports to China), industrial scale concentration index and factor intensity on the productivity. In addition, the adoption of Chow test proves the existence of structural change between 1980s and 1990s. Furthermore, we also apply SURE (Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations) analysis to the subsectors of Taiwan’s manufacturing in order to estimate the effects of these independent variables mentioned above on the dependent variable, the productivity of these subsectors.
On the other hand, it is also important to understand the sources of productivity change. In the second aspect, we decompose the productivity change into three parts, which are technical change, overall technical efficiency change and input specific slack change by using DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) method. The decomposition of productivity change does not only apply for Taiwan’s manufacturing but also for each subsectors.
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