| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 地政學系 === 91 === The level of housing vacancy was high in the year of 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing in Taiwan. Given a high vacancy level, housing price is expected to decline in order to return to equilibrium over in the long run. However, housing price has been on a rise and rent kept low over these years. Observations imply that the relationships among housing vacancy, housing price and rent need to be reexamined. Also, statistics show that the vacancy level of individual districts is different. But most previous literature of housing market assumes that all housing units are identical and ignores difference among them. The differences in characteristics of houses may be the reason for the different probability forming of vacant housing units, and for the different vacancy rate of individual districts.
This article uses census data to undertake empirical analysis. The regression model and binary logit model show conclusions as follows. First, vacancy rate in the previous period negatively influences current rate of change of housing rent, and the rate of change of existing-housing price in the previous period positively influences current rate of change of housing rent. Second, current housing rent and the rate of change of existing-housing price in the previous period positively influence current existing housing price, and current existing-housing price and current stock market index positively influence current pre-sale housing price. Third, existing-housing price in the previous period negatively influence current vacancy rate. Fourth, vacancy would be more likely to be observed when characteristics of houses differ from ordinary ones, households are liable to move and housing units are favored by investors. Finally, the vacancy rate among individual districts is different because characteristics of houses differ in individual districts and the probability of forming of vacant houses is also different.
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