| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立海洋大學 === 河海工程學系 === 91 === In this article we mainly discuss the subject of safe reliability regarding the breakwater structures. We hope to analyze the reliability index of designed durable life of breakwaters in accordance of the reliability theory. First, we make a concise illustration of the relationship between the extreme-value probability and exceeding probability, then we explore the probability that both the storm surge level duration and tide level duration occur simultaneously, and set up the probability distribution of the maximum tide composed from storm surge level and tide level. Next, using the connection of wave height and the maximum tide we are going to build the probability distribution of wave height as well as the conditional probability distribution of wave height and the maximum tide. We apply them in the united exceeding probability with the time fact under consideration. Finally we use Rosenblatt Theory to convert the exceeding probability of wave height and tide into equivalent, independent standardize normal distribution of probability. The limiting state function of sliding discredit of breakwater body is built by Goda pressure formula to solve the resistance factor acted to breakwaters, substrate the load factor calculated from the dead weight of breakwaters times friction factor. In this article we select the breakwaters of Keelung harbor as the sample to proceed with the reliability analysis of body sliding of breakwaters. From the sample analysis we realize that the reliability index acquired by applying exceeding probability is far lower than the reliability index reached by traditional extreme-value probability. This conclusion could be an important reference for our harbor engineers making the evaluation of safety under plan, design and construction tasks.
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