| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 高階經營碩士班 === 91 === For the last half century, financial forecast has been undergone numerous discussions among AICPA, authority agencies, and experts. Generally, scholars and researchers use either general financial ratios or cash-flow ratios or both to predict if enterprises will bankrupt or fail. As a matter of fact, there is no concurrent conclusion as for which one is better. Some believe that the former is more accurate than the latter, while some claim that it is the vice versa. Still, some assert that it is more accurate to use them both, and some even believe that cash forecast sheet is the most effective.
Usually, it has been some time since financial forecast was submitted to board of directors for approval prior to fiscal year, and moreover, some unpredictable information might occur during fiscal year given the information asymmetry. Therefore, the most important is to find funds gap as early as possible so as to respond quickly.
From the perspective of an enterprise insider, the researcher regards financial forecast as a necessary tool for professional managers to cope with current information, utilizing models conforming to business’s needs to introduce various situations for predicting possible funds gap in the near future.
The information for the development of financial forecasts is highly complex, involving all departments in a company. Using Excel as a tool and a case company as a basis, this study developed a model which could be used for predictions with several single variables or multi-variables. Also, the validity of this model was verified by virtue of about twenty times of simulation tests.
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Given that this case company, which engages in basic metal industry, is small and middle business, the model developed based on this case can only be used by similar businesses.
This model which employs a MIS approach and is developed based on financial and accounting procedures often acquires inputs of enormous amount of time, manpower, and resources to become an effective tool for planning and management. Due to the limited resources and talented, it takes researcher a lot of efforts to successfully establish this model. Moreover, the operation of this model which uses Excel as a tool is not as easy as that of other systems written with programming languages. Finally, because the case company is small and middle business which has possible crises different from that of large companies, the prediction the model can make is limited.
This study is mainly concerned with a system model which is not able to be shown in the text. Therefore, it is suggested to first recognize the framework of this study, and then pair with related tables to better understand this study.
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