| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 金融營運所 === 91 === This study tries to explore to forecast the non-performing loans and the relational variables, Steenackers & Goovaerts（1989）reveal some factors which influence on breaking a contract including occupation 、revenue and period of payment, with the literatures review and Logistic regression we construct the model to forcase the probability of non-performing loans. The result reveals that
(1) With the literatures review, we found the issues focus on the management and handle after non-performing loans appeared.
(2) In the degree of accuracy, Backward is better than Forward and Enter with the logistic regression
(3) In general, we should consider the loan period and the loan rate in the procreeing to avoid non-performing loans appeared.
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