Risk Analysis Model for Project Schedule with Uncertain Tasks

• Main Authors: Cheng-Jie Huang, 黃承傑
• Other Authors: Li -Chung Chao
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47200900384042425247

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 營建工程所 === 91 === Risk analysis model for project schedule with uncertain tasks Student：Cheng Jie Huang Advisor：Dr. Li Chung Chao Department of Construction Engineering National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology ABSTRACT As recent construction projects have become more and more complicated and greater in size with an enlarged scope of contract and higher uncertainty, contractors encounter more difficulties in schedule arrangement. However, existing traditional models and tools for schedule analysis such as CPM or PERT have many shortcomings which do not meet the requirement of risk analysis for project schedule. This research develops a modified model that uses a probabilistic structure network to combine contingency tasks in a project plan. It is able to model various scenarios of tasks including branching, looping, and conditional occurrence. The attributes of the network are converted into a spreadsheet format, with which a package software for risk analysis is used to perform Monte-Carlo simulations to the structured model. The obtained probability distributions of project duration can help evaluate the plan''s feasibility. This research also compares the spreadsheet-based simulation with a simulation program, which is designed specially for project schedule assessment. Through the use of an actual case, the model and the procedure proposed by this research are illustrated. The required schedule risk analysis can be done with such a simulation approach. Finally, a comparison between GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) and the proposed model, is made to show the advantages and disadvantages of using the each method.