The Corporate Failure Prediction Model for Conventional Industries in Taiwan—The Case of Food, Textile and Construction Companies.

• Main Authors: Shio-May Chen, 陳秀美
• Other Authors: Cheng-Yuan Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/97610492623922854490

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 財務管理所 === 91 === This study is aimed at food、textile and construction in the conventional industries as analyzing objects. By comparing the related financial rate of enterprises happened the financial crisis since 1997 with the normal enterprises at the same time we can view the difference of the two sets enterprises in those conventional industries and comparing the difference of those two sets enterprises in three properties and use it as a reference for investments. Finally use each financial rate of financial crisis enterprises and normal enterprises for Logit regression analysis and set up a model for crisis forecast and these can be used as a reference for investments. The results of this study show that there’s some difficulties in crisis forecast for five years before it happened. Finance deteriorate was gradually obvious before three or four years ago. The opaque of information cause the violent financial crisis unpredictable. But the poor ability of deal with the change of prosperity and eventually proceed to financial crisis was predictable by observing the financial statements. Different running model caused the variation in financial rate for separated properties, if we don’t care these characteristic we may get a conclusion stated things happened before that can’t be used for forecasting. According to the Logit Regression results, the index of financial crisis before four or five years ago was the net profit, and the debt ratio for one to three years ago.