Kaohsiung MRT BOT Proejct Risk Analysis–Application of Fuzzy Theory

• Main Authors: Yi-Chen Ho, 何宜真
• Other Authors: Frank Kuen-Bao Ling
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/77552975537233054283

碩士 === 國立高雄第一科技大學 === 風險管理與保險所 === 91 === Today, the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model has become more accepted in domestic public construction projects. However, many recent endeavors encounter substantial obstacles. Therefore, the BOT model warrants further risk assessment and analysis. This thesis takes Kaohsiung MRT BOT project as the prime example and focuses on its risk assessment by four groups of experts: (1) the Department of Kaohsiung Mass Rapid Transit (KMRT), (2) the privately-owned Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation (KRTC), (3) consultants, and (4) scholars. Furthermore, this study attempts to analyze the risk factors of the complicated BOT model to provide future BOT projects a reference guide. The study identifies seventy-four Kaohsiung MRT BOT risk factors and categorizes them according to the stages of construction and development. Through the employment of Fuzzy Delphi and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methods, the risk factors are ordered by importance, culled, and cross-referenced to the independent risk assessment and perception of the four expert groups. The study shows that various stages of BOT projects are strongly influenced by the prevailing political climate. In terms of financial risk factors, lack of capital during the build period and operating loss during the operate period are the predominant risk factors. In terms of management risk factors, policies and decision-making process management during the build period and equipment safety and maintenance during the operate build are the primary risk factors. In addition, general public protest is considered the top force majeure risk factor. Finally, due to the inexperience of domestic entities, the adequacy of contractual provisions, with regard to the transfer procedures and price assessment, is the major risk factor during the transfer period. This study also finds the risk perceptions among the experts of the four groups are surprisingly similar. In particular, the importance of various risk factors for KMRT and KRTC are well-aligned. With the joint consensus between these two groups, they are able to synergistically effect the development of Kaohsiung MRT BOT project.