Dynamics Study of Funeral Industry in Taiwan

碩士 === 南華大學 === 管理研究所 === 91 ===   This study intends to simulate the long-tem development of Taiwan’s funeral industry on the basis of Systematic Dynamics Model created by Prof. Forrester of MIT. Variables adopted in this study include General Population, Birth Number, Death Number, Population Age...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Chung-chang Juan, 阮俊中
Other Authors: Cuang-Bin Wang
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2003
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/93875437922706117336
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Summary:碩士 === 南華大學 === 管理研究所 === 91 ===   This study intends to simulate the long-tem development of Taiwan’s funeral industry on the basis of Systematic Dynamics Model created by Prof. Forrester of MIT. Variables adopted in this study include General Population, Birth Number, Death Number, Population Age Structure, Age Structure of the Dead and many other indicators, such as the Income, the Output Value and Average Price of Taiwan’s funeral industry.      This study finds a rather large gap in each of the past years between the General Investigation of Commerce and Industry conducted by the Accounting & Statistical Office of the Executive Yuan and the simulation output generated by the Systematic Dynamics Model in terms of the income and output value of Taiwan’s funeral industry. For example, the general productivity of Taiwan’s funeral industry in 1996 was NT$2.418 billions according to the General Investigation of Commerce and Industry, but the actual number might be up to NT$11.191 billions referring to the simulation of Systematic Dynamics Model. Also, the general income of Taiwan’s funeral industry in 2001 according to the above mentioned investigation was 5.6 billions and that generated by the simulation model was 44.011 billions (see Estimation 2).     Taiwan’s population structure will be facing a huge change in the coming five decades. More specifically, the death number will become greater than birth number in Taiwan since 2027 according analysis. In this logic, the negative growth of population will lead to the death rate of 2050 to be 2.9 times higher than that of 2000 (16.23% in 2050 and 5.68% in 2000). In the meantime, the death number of 2050 will also claim up to 360 thousands, which is, by chance, also 2.9 times greater than the 126 thousands of 2000. Turning to another aspect, 63% of the dead population was over 65 years old in 2000 and that of 2050 will hit 74.5%. Due to the increasing number and the rise of the average age of the dead, it seems that the chance to reform and to improve Taiwan’s funeral industry has arrived. On this ground, this study would suggest to view funeral industry as a rising traditional industry.     Influenced by the changing funeral concepts and the declining economic capacity, expenses spending on the dead are therefore decreasing accordingly. This phenomenon indicates that the price of funeral service will gradually decrease in the future. For example, the average price per service in 2000 was NT$340 thousands and that will fall down to 330 thousands in 2050 by estimation.     This study simulates three different income structures of Taiwan’s funeral industry by citing three different pricing structures. In short, the annual general income of Taiwan’s funeral industry in 2000 was NT$44 billions and that will reach NT$110.1 billions in 2050. The undeveloped funeral land on Taiwan in 2000 was 3,386 hectares and that of 2050 will drop to 1992 hectares, which by then can be transferred to other industries or reserve for funeral parlor and/or cremation site.     Furthermore, this study finds that the unlawful bury in Taiwan remains high up to 10% until now, which, in general, represents NT$4.4 billions lose of funeral income in 2000 and this lose will go up to NT$11 billions in 2050 in this sense.