| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 後勤管理研究所 === 91 === The phenomenon of demand ordering variabilities in the supply chain were amplified (information distortion)as they moved up the supply chain is called “bullwhip effect”. It can lead to tremendous inefficiencies for the supply chain system, but if given appropriate conditions, eliminating the bullwhip effect can increase product profitability by 10－30%.In this paper, we will quantify this effect for different demand processes in a three-stage supply chains consisting of a single retailer, a single distributor and a single manufacturer; In addition, we will consider two types of forecasting method－exponential smoothing forecast and moving average forecast. Also, we will illustrate the different bullwhip effect models for different demand processes and analyze the key factors for each of them.Finally, we will discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research.
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