| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 科技管理學程碩士班 === 91 === Technology fast improvement has led to shortened life cycles for products in many industries. Thus, a correct sales forecast can help the managers make an appropriate strategic decision. Due to that Internet has been prevailing over the whole world and 30-years continued development, the optical fiber, which had the advantage of bandwidth transmission, approach the access network applications, instead of long-distance cable step by step. The main function of diffusion models is to explore the product life cycle, and to forecast demand. Hence, the primary purpose of this study is to propose a modified Bass model, adding in some variables, which could influence the sales figure and market potential such as: fiber prices, bandwidth demand and Internet access price to prove its better ability in sales forecast. Base on this kind of modified model, to find the compare the results of US and Mainland China, which has the strongest fiber demand at the moment than any other countries in the world. The annual data of standard single mode fiber, which is quoted from KMI’s research from 1980 to 2002, including requirement, sales volume and price, had been used. Finally, base on the proposed model, to forecast the demand for standard single mode fiber during next 7 years (from 2003 to 2010) in mainland China.
The results indicate that the proposed model has better ability in prompt standard single mode fiber sales forecast than Bass model and Robinson and Lakhani model for US and mainland China market. Second, demonstration analysis shows that bandwidth demand has a positive impact on market potential of single mode fiber, as well as the sales forecast single mode fiber is positive influenced by fiber prices and Internet access price.
In the optical communications industry nowadays, the market size is fast expending but the price and profit is decreasing oppositely. No doubt the major players will quit the manufactures and outsourcing from Asia area. Face this situation, the Taiwan’s manufactory need to make the appropriate strategic decision to catch the market immediately.
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