| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 交通運輸研究所 === 91 === Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA) operates the primary rail system of intercity transportation in Taiwan, any accident happened on TRA will affect operation and image. Since Taiwan’s Minister of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) wants to develop the risk management of rail safety and the safety estimation, this study will define the risk standard of operational safety for TRA, based on the accident data from 1997 to 2001.
The accident data is classified to five categories according to the relationship between the parties of accident：(1)Derailment or Overturn, (2)Crash, (3)Train colliding with motor vehicle, (4)Train colliding with human, and(5)Personal accident. In connection with the accident location, all accident data can be classified, thereby we can estimate risk value of safety and contributing degree for each type of accident, and plot event tree of five accident categories. Based on the event tree, we can draft improvement plans for each accident type and make expert surveys. From most of those surveys we can gain the benefit and the cost of improvement plans. After re-estimating the benefit of some improvement plans and correcting the time basis, we can calculate B/C thereby putting improvement plans in sequence. Considering established standards of four different criteria of safety, we can calculate four different values of risk standard for TRA, and bring into those values to plot the risk triangle of TRA. Comparing with the risk standard of other modal and the leading causes of death in Taiwan, we can finally understand the relative safety level of TRA.
From our calculation, the current risk value of TRA is 5.8786 Equivalent Fatalities/Million Vehicle Kilometers (MVK), the standard risk value of safety for TRA in consideration of B/C is 5.2892 Equivalent Fatalities/MVK, the standard risk value of safety in consideration of the limits of authority is 5.8460 Equivalent Fatalities/MVK, the intolerably critical risk value is 5.5172 Equivalent Fatalities/MVK, the negligibly critical risk value is 0.2703 Equivalent Fatalities/MVK. Compared with other modal, the risk level of safety for TRA is much lower than the national freeway in Taiwan, lower than the heavy civil aviation aircraft registered of Taiwan, and almost equal to the light civil aviation aircraft registered of Taiwan. Besides, unless serious accident happened, the risk of TRA is lower than that of leading causes of death in Taiwan.
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