| Summary: | 博士 === 國立成功大學 === 資源工程學系碩博士班 === 91 === Electricity power is one of the major input factors in economic development. To continually support the economic to growth and meet power requirements in the future, load forecasting has become very important for electric utilities. Moreover, accurate load forecast can be helpful in developing power supply strategy，financing planning, market research ,and electricity management. Up to now, load forecasting emphasized on aggregate or sector load forecasting in Taiwan, but aggregate or sector load forecasting can not predict where the load takes place and not be helpful in transmission line or substation construction.
Therefore, the purpose of this study is to use the Regional Electricity Load Forecasting (RELFOR) system to forecast the regional electricity demand and electric load in the future. Results of this study can be the basis of consideration of power basic constructions and, further, be the reference of power management authority.
From the results of this study, our RELFOR system can yield more accuracy predict results than the ANN model and econometric model. According to the forecasting results of our RELFOR model, the power load in Northern region would increase faster than the rest regions of Taiwan. Compared to the long-term power development planning of Taiwan, the Southern region has the power supply shortage crisis in future.
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