Establishment of Forecast model by Artificial Neural Network for the Hazard of Building Earthquake Disasters and the Response to Disaster Management Rescue System--A Case Study at Partial Area of Chia-yi Old Community

• Main Authors: Yuan-Chun Chang, 張淵鈞
• Other Authors: ---
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59172908206832423547

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 都市計劃學系碩博士班 === 91 === In recent years , our government invested a big amount of budget in the researches concerning with disaster protection , and the evaluation of urban planning also regulated the planning of disaster protection . The partial area of Chia-Yi old community is the research subject of this study . Geography Information System (GIS) and Haz-Taiwan management system are used to to establish the database system of disasters rescuing and refusing space for application to the forecast of the hazard of building earthquake disasters by artificial neural network . Eventually the information of disaster-rescuing and refusing space , the result of the hazard of building earthquake disasters and the provision of the transmission mechanism for the information of disaster rescue and prevention are displayed by the concept of vehicle through electronic network of disaster geographical information of Web-GIS . The research firstly establishes an artificial neural network model bases on 921 earthquake data , and adopts its dynamic learning and memory capability in application to the research subject to forecast the hazard of building earthquake disasters . Compared with the pervious concerned research , in which logistic regression model was established , the research eventually proves that forecasting ability about the hazard of building earthquake disasters by artificial neural network model is lower in error rate . Next , the response to disaster management rescue system and information website of disaster rescue and prevention is also established . It includes the place and routes of disaster rescue and refuge and urban danger sites . The disaster rescue and refuge places are categorized into five：refuge , medical care , food supply , fire-fighting and police . The disaster rescue and refuge routes contain disaster rescue routes , refuge routes and alternative routes .All of these in addition to space analysis of forecasting the hazard of building earthquake disasters can be displayed through Web-GIS , and provide the real time information to the general public , disaster preventing group, and decision maker for reference to real time response when disasters occur and the planning of ordinary disaster rescue and prevention .