| Summary: | 碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 國際企業學系碩士班 === 91 === According to “Information Content of Dividends Hypothesis”, the company’s dividends policy and its change indicate the company’s future earnings. On the other hand, investors can obtain the estimation of the company’s future earnings from the financial forecasts, including manager’s financial forecasts and analyst’s financial forecasts.
This thesis examines whether “Information Content of Dividends Hypothesis” can work and investigate the relative accuracy of manager’s financial forecasts and analyst’s financial forecasts and the influential factors of the relative accuracy and accuracy by targeting the public-listed companies in Taiwan during the period 1992-2001.
In this empirical study, This thesis examines the positive relationship between the rate of change in dividends per share and the change in future earnings, the total change in dividends and the future earnings, the total change in dividends and the future abnormal earnings after adding the appropriate control variables like the book value of equity, the past accounting variables, the market value of equity, the past dividends by pooled regressions and cross-sectional regressions firstly. Secondly, this thesis compares the accuracy of manager’s financial forecasts and analyst’s financial forecasts by Wilcoxon sign rank test and examines whether the company size, growth rate of company size, debt ratio, invest-ratio of insiders, earning variability, systematic risk, list history, bull/bear stock market can make an effect on the relative accuracy or accuracy of manager’s financial forecasts and analyst’s financial forecasts by pooled regressions and cross-sectional regressions.
The results show that “Information Content of Dividends Hypothesis” can work in Taiwan, analyst’s financial forecasts are more accurate than manager’s financial forecasts especially when systematic risk is bigger or list history is longer, and list history can make an important effect on the accuracy of manager’s financial forecasts and analyst’s financial forecasts.
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