The Study of Building the ForecastingModel for National Immunization Vaccine Procurement

• Main Authors: Sheng-Yi Chen, 陳盛儀
• Other Authors: Ruei-kei Chiu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2003
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/04176142999795488546

碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 資訊管理學系 === 91 === It has become the primary goal of enterprise that uses information technology to build best-fit procurement amount of materials. Through it, enterprise can reduce the cost of stock and enhance the benefit of operation. The web-based National Immunization Information System will finish the deploy phase in the end of 2003 under the support of the Center for Disease Control, Department of Health, ROC. The next phase task will focus on the planning and implementation of National Immunization Central Database, in order to offer higher-level, multi-purpose, multi-dimension decision support function. This research attempts to constitute a best-fit procurement level through two-stage estimating procedures by using both scientific and objective method. In the first stage, we use the up-coming grey prediction theory and back-propagation neural network system to construct the vaccine procurement prediction model of yearly requirement of vaccine amount according to the yearly expensed in the previous couple years at each local heath department and its birth rate. Afterward, we take this model to predict the vaccine possible consumption amount in the next year of future years. In the second stage, we obtain the national suggested amount of vaccine procurement and the value of deviation adjustment through the method of estimation depending on the result that is generated in the first stage.